Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.868968 1.018479 1.185936 1.387418 1.623338 1.890942 2.217709
2024-10-20 0.601684 0.789455 1.024460 1.340344 1.754285 2.278963 2.995806
2024-10-27 0.459619 0.653544 0.916225 1.298369 1.841059 2.585741 3.688396
2024-11-03 0.384988 0.584318 0.872207 1.318817 1.995882 2.986873 4.553593
2024-11-10 0.348768 0.560031 0.882542 1.411461 2.259957 3.573203 5.770723
2024-11-17 0.310190 0.523725 0.866201 1.456409 2.452207 4.072201 6.924101
2024-11-24 0.272594 0.481748 0.832604 1.465171 2.582610 4.484936 7.992458
2024-12-01 0.238647 0.439887 0.791733 1.453065 2.671917 4.835715 8.999628
2024-12-08 0.211317 0.405131 0.757353 1.445680 2.765604 5.202532 10.083580
2024-12-15 0.191177 0.380363 0.736939 1.459858 2.898977 5.656162 11.391544
2024-12-22 0.166281 0.342602 0.686557 1.408498 2.897357 5.851297 12.219560
2024-12-29 0.161077 0.343251 0.710592 1.507838 3.208986 6.699834 14.489772
2025-01-05 0.141100 0.310970 0.665024 1.459553 3.213648 6.936556 15.536176
2025-01-12 0.123721 0.281785 0.622066 1.411071 3.212010 7.162548 16.601821
2025-01-19 0.109108 0.256486 0.583783 1.366935 3.212773 7.392415 17.709654
2025-01-26 0.101180 0.245253 0.575003 1.388473 3.366369 7.985175 19.752768
2025-02-02 0.099097 0.247483 0.597220 1.486038 3.713676 9.074273 23.159575
2025-02-09 0.093882 0.241293 0.598691 1.533373 3.945413 9.920186 26.093194
2025-02-16 0.086973 0.229821 0.585727 1.542601 4.082562 10.552509 28.576489
2025-02-23 0.079654 0.216189 0.565443 1.529851 4.160546 11.045042 30.764273
2025-03-02 0.073339 0.204302 0.547998 1.522075 4.250632 11.581595 33.156184
2025-03-09 0.068654 0.196185 0.539357 1.537005 4.405100 12.311831 36.205925
2025-03-16 0.061564 0.180302 0.507635 1.482917 4.357956 12.483438 37.676219